Levis and Liodakis (2001) concludethat positive and negative earnings surprises have an asymmetrical effect onthe returns of low- and high-rated stocks in the U.K. The objective of thisstudy is to contribute to the literature by adding this missing piece. Thefocus is on the U.S. technology sector as it has attracted significant publicinterest in recent years. This paper first examines if a trading strategy onthe basis of earnings surprises worked in the U.S. tech sector.
A�Stock transactions were made two monthsafter the end of the SUE quarter for the first three quarters and three monthsafter the end of the SUE quarter for the fourth quarter. The SUE formula enables a trader or analyst to get an understanding of where the current pricing on a stock falls, whether it is within a single standard deviation of the expected price or not. Blackstone Inc. which is readying to report earnings on April 17, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It’s Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.24 a share, and BX is 15 days out from its next earnings report.
- The new release builds on the momentum of the company’s previous two eBooks, which explored practical AI applications and tools for agencies.
- This paper first examines if a trading strategy onthe basis of earnings surprises worked in the U.S. tech sector.
- By comparing projected earnings with reported earnings, stocks with positive surprises can be identified.
- We observed a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 relative to SPY Sharpe of 0.88 using this implementation during the period of December 1, 2009 to September 1, 2019 in backtesting.
- During the 2008 Financial Crisis, notably, investors disproportionately punished companies that disappointed on both revenue and earnings, while rewarding those that missed on earnings but beat on revenue.
Earnings Surprise and Analyst Estimates
DCF analyses use future free cash flow projections and discount them via a required annual rate. If the value arrived at through the DCF is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity could be a good one. CFI is the global institution behind the financial modeling and valuation analyst FMVA® Designation.
Between 1993 and 2004, surprise-driven outperformance was more prominent among smaller and less-liquid stocks. Yet, performance over the past 16 years has been more balanced across different size and liquidity cohorts. The “unexpected” aspect can be either positive – meaning the company generated more earnings than expected – or negative – which means the company earned less than they were expected to earn. TRV is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Blackstone Inc. (BX) as well. During the 2008 Financial Crisis, notably, investors disproportionately punished companies that disappointed on both revenue and earnings, while rewarding those that missed on earnings but beat on revenue. Management’s discussion and analysis dig into specific reasons behind aspects of company growth or decline on the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flows.
Effect of earnings surprises
This implies that investors can earn excess returns by buying stocks that have positive stock surprises. This behavior of stock prices drifting upward after a positive announcement is referred to as the post-earnings announcement drift. Stocks with positive earnings standardized earnings surprise surprises tend to drift upward following the earnings announcement.
According to the PEAD theory, stocks of companies that underperform expectations tend to experience prolonged declines, whereas those exceeding expectations are likely to generate sustained positive excess returns in the future. Where \(\sigma(X)\) is the standard deviation of \(X\), \(EPS\) a firm’s quarterly earnings per share, \(q\) the current quarter, and \(q-4\) four quarters ago. Keep in mind that although we use quarterly EPS data, the portfolio rebalances monthly. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock’s price, but also to a gradual increase over time.
Module 31.4, LOS 31.p: Momentum indicators in valuation
The sample universe consists ofroughly 270 tech firms in 1994, growing to 500 firms in 2000, resulting in 7966stock-quarter observations for the analysis. We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises. A common belief among investors is that combining earnings and revenue surprises is most applicable to smaller companies—liquidity (i.e., how easy the stock is buy and sell quickly) being a key factor. Yet, in their analysis, the researchers found that post-announcement outperformance driven by earnings and revenue surprises tends to persist across all capitalization categories and trading-volume levels. However, most academic research focuses on the magnitude and direction of the surprise, and immediate stock price changes following the announcement.
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Lerner and his team expand on this by looking at the quality and stability of earnings. In other words, the amount of unexpected earnings is scaled by a measure of the size of historical forecast errors. The smaller the historical size of forecast errors, the more meaningful a specific size of EPS forecast errors, and vice versa. Relative strength indicators compare a stock’s price or return performance during a given time period with its own historical performance or with some group of peer stocks.
In order to create an accurate forecast of how a specific company’s stock will perform, an analyst must gather information from several sources. They need to speak with the company’s management, visit that company, study its products and closely watch the industry in which it operates. Then, the analyst will create a mathematical model that incorporates what the analyst has learned and reflects their judgment or expectation of that company’s earnings for the forthcoming quarter. The expectations may be published by the company on its website, and will be distributed to the analyst’s clients. A surprise occurs when a company reports numbers that deviate from those estimates. Financial analysts make mathematical and financial models of a company’s earnings from other accounting periods.
Hi sina nowr self.SetStartDate and other self.SetXXX methods used in Initialize are not “honored” in live mode.Unfortunately, at the moment, it is not possible to warm up universe selection. Policy questions and growth risks are likely to persist in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s upcoming tariffs. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson outlines how to seek investments that might mitigate the fallout. Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
- The economic rationale is that patterns of persistence or reversal may exist in stock returns.
- Dische and Zimmermann (1999) report that abnormal returnscan be earned from the portfolio of the Swiss stocks exhibiting the mostpositive earnings revision.
- CFI is on a mission to enable anyone to be a great financial analyst and have a great career path.
- However, when unexpected earnings – positive or negative – are the direct result of the company’s actions, they may offer important insights to investors about the future trajectory of the company’s stock.
- This post implements a strategy that standardizes the unexpected earnings of stocks and trades the top 5% of those standardized stocks.
They use the models to forecast what the company can reasonably expect to generate in earnings during the upcoming accounting period. Forecasting price/earnings can be tricky, which means that unexpected earnings may be the result of inaccurate analyst estimates. However, when unexpected earnings – positive or negative – are the direct result of the company’s actions, they may offer important insights to investors about the future trajectory of the company’s stock. In the A-share market, individual investors often display lagged responses and herd behavior, leading to post-earnings drift even months after the surprise. This asymmetry in information provides an opportunity for capturing considerable excess returns. In market efficiency literature, one frequently discussed topic is the anomalous behavior of stock returns following earnings announcements.
This an abstract figure that can be used to compare this company with other companies. If another company, for example, has a scaled earnings surprise of 5, then XYZ is said to be faring better as its earnings forecasts show less deviations. “In fact, our work shows that stocks that beat consensus earnings or revenue expectations tend to outperform stocks that missed expectations over the subsequent one and three months, and this holds true both among liquid and less liquid stocks,” Lerner says. It’s often the case that an earnings surprise can be the product of cost-cutting, creative accounting and other quick fixes.
Thanks to Jasper Capital’s in-depth research on fundamental and price-volume aspects, the surprise signals constructed on this basis deliver consistent and stable excess returns. The synergy of data, factors, and models enables uncovering hidden “giants” in the market and capturing earnings surprises. Earnings Exceeding Market Expectations After an earnings announcement, investors express their views through buy or sell decisions.
A strategy that buys stocks with a positive surprise and sells stocks with a negative surprise generally generates alpha. This post implements a strategy that standardizes the unexpected earnings of stocks and trades the top 5% of those standardized stocks. It is written based on a paper published in The Accounting Review by Foster, Olsen, and Shevlin (1984). Our implementation narrows down our universe to 1000 liquid assets based on daily trading volume and price, and the availability of fundamental data on the stocks in our data library. We calculate the unexpected earnings at the beginning of each month, standardize the unexpected earnings, go long on the top 5%, and rebalance the portfolio monthly.
Momentum indicators look at fundamental variables like price and EPS inthe context of a time series of historical or expected value. “Investors are more likely to reward companies that not only surprise on earnings and revenue but also demonstrate the potential for consistent performance,” says Lerner. Uncertainty has been a prevailing theme since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and company earnings seem to be no exception.
Earnings surprise occurs when the firm�s reportedearnings per share deviates from the street estimate or the analysts� consensusforecast. The unexpected earnings have been found to be useful in predictingabnormal stock returns. The investment implications of the size and sign of theunexpected earnings in global equity markets are well addressed in recentyears. For example, Sultan (1994) finds that the unexpected earnings can beused as a discriminator between stocks that performed relatively well andstocks that performed relative poorly in Japan.